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"Going forward, the market will focus on U.S. and Chinese economic indicators and U.S. crude oil inventory levels to assess global demand trend," Ueno said, adding that investors will also consider a weakening U.S. dollar, which will provide support for oil prices. The oil market has dropped almost 20% since late September as crude output in the U.S., the world's top producer, held at record highs, while the market was concerned about demand growth, especially from China, the No. U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillates inventories were seen dropping, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. A weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute is due later on Tuesday, and from the Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday. On the supply side, the OPEC+ are likely to extend or even deepen oil supply cuts into next year, eight analysts have predicted.

Persons: Brent, Tsuyoshi Ueno, Ueno, Goldman Sachs, Yuka Obayashi, Stephen Coates Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, Walmart Inc, OPEC, West Texas, Reuters, Organization of, Petroleum, NLI Research, Traders, Walmart, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, Administration, Thomson Locations: Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, Russia, U.S, OPEC, timespreads

☆ Japan factory output rises 2% in June as demand buoys manufacturers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Japanese factory output improved in June for the first time in two months, government data showed on Monday, highlighting growing confidence among manufacturers buoyed by strong demand. Output rose 2.0% in June from a month prior on a seasonally adjusted basis, missing the 2.4% median market forecast. Electronic components and devices output rose 6.8% as shipments of capacitors used in smartphones increased, the METI official said. Manufacturers surveyed by METI expected output to fall 0.2% in July and increase 1.1% in August, the data also showed. Separate data showed retail sales rose 5.9% in June from a year earlier, in line with economist forecasts.

Persons: Taro Saito, METI, We'll, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kim Coghill, Christopher Cushing Organizations: NLI Research, Bank of, Reuters, Ministry, Economy, Trade, Industry, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

Global financial markets have been closely watching Japan's wage data, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regards pay growth as a key gauge to consider in deliberations about a shift in policy. Regular wages rose 1.8% in May from a year before, labour ministry data showed, the biggest gain since February 1995. The strong base pay growth boosted worker's total cash earnings, or nominal wages, by 2.5% in May, after a revised 0.8% increase logged in April. Still, real wages contracted 1.2% in May, the 14th consecutive month of year-on-year declines, as relentless consumer inflation outstrips nominal pay growth and squeezes households' buying power. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, household spending was down 1.1%, versus an estimated 0.5% gain to mark a fourth month of decline.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kuroda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo, Takumi Tsunoda, Shinichi Uchida, Taro Saito, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Global, Bank of Japan, Hosei University, Shinkin Central Bank Research, Nikkei, BOJ's, NLI Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

But Ueda said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must also avoid being too late in normalising monetary policy, a sign he will be more open to the idea of tweaking its controversial bond yield control policy than his dovish predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda. "If the BOJ suddenly realises that inflation will stably and sustainably hit 2% and decides to normalise monetary policy, it will have to make very big policy adjustments," Ueda said in an inaugural news conference on Monday. The dollar extended its gains against the yen to hit 133.055 , the highest since April 4, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. PRICE TRENDS HOLD KEYIf the BOJ sees that it can achieve its price target, it might need to normalise monetary policy, Ueda said. But the BOJ must sustain Kuroda's stimulus programme for the time being, including YCC, remarks that diminish the chance of a policy shift at this month's policy meeting.

☆ Japan logs record merchandise trade deficit in January as export growth slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A flag of Japan flies near cargo containers at Tokyo's Odaiba Waterfront on August 6, 2020. Growth in Japan's merchandise exports slowed sharply in January amid weakening Chinese demand for cars and chipmaking machinery, stoking concern about a global slowdown and creating the country's largest trade deficit on record. Trade figures issued on Thursday followed weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data, underscoring the challenge for the Bank of Japan in achieving growth led by private demand while stably sustaining inflation above 2%. "In a nutshell, exports are weakening," said Taro Saito, chief economist at NLI Research Institute. The result was a 3.49 trillion yen ($26.07 billion) deficit in merchandise trade in January, the biggest in records going back to 1979, the data showed.

☆ Japan logs record merchandise trade deficit in Jan as export growth slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Jan merchandise exports +3.5% yr/yr vs forecast +0.8%Imports +17.8% yr/yr vs forecast +18.4%Trade deficit at record Y3.49 trln vs forecast Y3.87 trillionCommodity inflation peaking but trade deficit to linger -analystTOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Growth in Japan's merchandise exports slowed sharply in January amid weakening Chinese demand for cars and chipmaking machinery, stoking concern about a global slowdown and creating the country's largest trade deficit on record. Trade figures issued on Thursday followed weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data, underscoring the challenge for the Bank of Japan in achieving growth led by private demand while stably sustaining inflation above 2%. The result was a 3.49 trillion yen ($26.07 billion) deficit in merchandise trade in January, the biggest in records going back to 1979, the data showed. Data issued on Monday showed Japan's economy, the world's third largest, had grown at an annualised rate of only 0.6 in the fourth quarter as business investment slumped. Japan reports trade in services separately, in its current account data.

☆ Slumping China-bound Japanese exports raise fears of global downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Exports to largest trading partner China fell 6.2% year-on-year in value and were down 24% in volume terms in December. Exports to the United States in December rose 16.9% from a year ago, led by cars, mining equipment and aero-engine parts. In the worst case, it may deal a blow to Japanese exports, which could in turn hit Japan's factory output and capital expenditure," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at ITOCHU Research Institute. "Trade deficits will stay at high levels even as import growth slows with oil prices falling and weak yen running its course. That's because exports remain weak due to lacklustre global demand," said Taro Saito, executive research fellow at NLI Research Institute.

Coins and banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. That contrasts with Japan's intervention after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami to quell sharp yen rises, in which authorities announced most interventions. "With stealth intervention, authorities can give markets the impression they could be stepping in more frequently than they actually have," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. That means Tokyo will need to rely more on its words - or its silence - rather than reserves to shore up the yen. You could say stealth intervention may be better than nothing, though it's really just buying time."

☆ Bank of Japan keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance on Thursday, reassuring markets that it will continue to swim against a global tide of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. "However, we believe that the BOJ will never allocate monetary policy for the FX rate adjustment and will stick to the YCC policy. "The most important thing is how the foreign-exchange rate reacts to that contrast in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. It also leaves the impression there will be no change in monetary policy during Kuroda's remaining term." He has said lesser about any merit of the weak yen recently out of consideration towards public sentiment against rising costs of living."

☆ В Японии проживает более 10 млн бедных
▼ + stars: | 2021-01-20 | by ( Mld Media Srl | ) noi.md time to read: +2 min

Несмотря на относительно низкий уровень бедности, статистика в Японии маскирует реальные экономические проблемы населения, возникшие во время пандемии, говорится в статье, опубликованной 19 января агентством AFP. В публикации говорится, что в Японии, экономика которой является третьей по величине в мире, последствия эпидемии относительно невелики — погибло около 4500 человек. «Я точно знаю, что средний класс рушится», — комментирует ситуацию глава некоммерческой организации по оказанию помощи Tenohasi Кенджи Сейно (Kenji Seino). По словам сотрудника Исследовательского института страховой компании «Ниссеи» (NLI Research Institute) Таро Сайто (Taro Saito) повышение уровня безработицы в Японии на один процентный пункт приводит примерно к 3000 дополнительных самоубийств в год. При этом все эксперты сходятся на том, что масштабы бедности в Японии намного меньше, чем во многих странах — даже в других развитых государствах.

Persons: Ren Ohnishi, — Tenohasi, Kenji Seino, Taro Saito, Рен Ониши ( ), Кенджи Сейно, Таро Сайто ( ) Organizations: Independent, Research Institute, Центр поддержки независимой жизни Мойя ( ), Исследовательский институт страховой компании «Ниссеи» ( ) Locations: AFP, Япония

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